The Road to Removal

Impeachment in the House is like a grand jury.   They vote on whether the charges are enough to be worthy of making a trial.  It is then up to the leader of the House (in this case Ms. Pelosi) whether or not to seek that trial.  If she does, then the House acts as the prosecutor and the subject (in this case Trump) is free to obtain a lawyer of his choosing, or to represent himself.

Nancy Pelosi

Each side has the opportunity to call witnesses.  It’s not up to the Senate.  It’s written up that way.  The dems can subpoena anyone they want, regardless of party or presidential preference.  Anyone who ignores the subpoena can (and should) be held in contempt, and face impeachment himself if they are an elected official. 

Chief Justice John Roberts

Following a contempt citation, the person cited is arrested (by the Sergeant-at-Arms), brought to the floor of the chamber, held to answer charges by the presiding officer, and then subjected to punishment.  Usually imprisonment for punishment, imprisonment for coercion, or release from the contempt citation.  The case is then turned over to the US Attorney for the DC area.

When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice presides over Senate impeachment.  This would be John Roberts.  He was nominated by George W Bush and is a native of New York.  He served as Associate Counsel to President Reagan.  He is considered a moderate conservative and votes much the same as Samuel Alito.

If convicted, the president can, in separate proceedings, be barred from every holding any future federal office, elected or appointed.

The likelihood of Trump being removed is slim.  It must be a two thirds vote, and that means 67 senators.  The current senate is made up of 53 Republicans, two Independents, and 45 Democrats.  That means that if the two Independents vote to impeach, an additional 20 Republican senators would need to vote in favor of impeachment and that is unlikely.  According to Politico, “there are only 35 firm votes to remove Trump from office. A further 10 are down as probably, five maybe, 31 probably not, and 19 a firm no.”

The House is not required to present a motion of removal to the Senate at all.  Given Trump is nearing the end of his term, the Republican party loyalty, and the challenge of fighting a lot of contempt charges, Ms Pelosi may decide it is more effective to just leave the president in limbo.  Even if she does submit, the Senate is not required by the constitution to act on it, but it is generally assumed they will.  Clinton’s trial lasted 5 months and was significantly less important than the charges against Trump.